The Golden Ratio: Gameweek 9
One not so fine day in the aftermath of an unpleasant Gameweek and another poor captaincy choice, a ray of hope came from my television, a documentary on ancient mathematics where I was introduced to the theory of the Golden Ratio. After being a “Specialist in failure” of making poor captaincy choices, I had to change my way of playing the game we all love.
It is said and proved that nature depicts specific patterns and it tends to repeat itself. One such pattern is the Golden Ratio.
What is the Golden Ratio?
The actual definition can be quite complex, so I’ll cut it short and keep it within our context, which is FPL. At first, I needed a number to compare and to evaluate the ratio. I chose BPS because it provides a larger value scale than any other field. I chose not look for a player who has hit the ratio but look for someone who might be expecting to hit the ratio.
The ratio’s value is “1.61” but I was not looking for that, I wanted a player who could possibly get to that ratio (approx) in the coming Gameweek.
So what’s the calculation?
What better way than explaining it through an example (Hypothetical).
Firstly you need to decide what aspect to look at, either all Gameweeks, Home Gameweeks or Away Gameweeks only. This needs to remain consistent throughout the calculation.
Here we will consider home Gameweeks for Eden Hazard- remember the numbers aren’t real…
Y=Player’s BPS score of most recent applicable Gameweek, in our example say this is Gameweek 7 (last home game) and that Hazard scored 30 BPS
X= Player’s BPS of the second most recent applicable Gameweek, in our example say this is GW 5 (previous home game) and that Hazard scored 19 BPS
If the ratio Y:X or Y/X had a value which could be considered as something that is approaching Φ (phi, symbol for Golden Ratio) then that particular player was considered as a possible captaincy choice.
We ideally want values that are close to approaching 1.6, the golden ratio, so we will look for values that lie in the range: 1.2-1.55.
In our example the ratio would be 30:19 which would simplify to 1:1.57 which shows this ratio is very close to the Golden Ratio of 1.61. We can consider this ratio a players Golden Score.
Existence of Golden Ratio
At first it’s hard to believe the theory but the more you understand and appreciate it the more relevant it becomes.
For example, the Fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, …) each term is the sum of the previous two, and the ratio becomes increasingly closer to the Golden Ratio. Or Leonardo da Vinci, like many other artists throughout the ages, made extensive use of the Golden Ratio to create pleasing compositions.
Even the human skeleton is in the Golden Ratio!
So armed with this new knowledge let’s apply the theory to Gameweek 9 and present a couple of players who meet the golden ratio formula.
Dele Alli – Golden Score 1.55
Tottenham midfielder Alli has been in good form recently. Three goals and an assist in his last five Gameweeks attest to this. He’s got the numbers we need. Much attention has been directed towards Son but Alli is definitely going under the radar right now. A home fixture to Bournemouth gives him plenty of opportunity of getting on the scoresheet again.
Calculation: Gameweek 8 / Gameweek 7 = 28/18 = 1.55
Diego Costa – Golden Score 1.3
This selection has probably not come as a surprise as the striker has been involved in at least a goal, in every home game Chelsea have played this season. This week Man United visit Stamford Bridge and history would suggest that Costa can get a goal. A score of 1.3 though is not as high as it could be and averages might suggest that at some point his scoring record might come to an halt.
Calculation: Gameweek 8 (H) / Gameweek 5 (H) = 35/27 = 1.3
As with all statistical analysis, the bigger the sample size the more stable the data will be and as the season progresses the better examples I will be able to provide. Until then good luck for Gameweek 9.
Thanks for reading and don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @GoForRM
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